Salient Facts

It’s interesting coming across blog posts on skills vs. content, because it’s a topic near and dear to my own heart.

When I put together my self-determined major in Epistemology of the Social Sciences, one of the core drivers was the realization that I didn’t know who to believe – that is, I was being taught “facts” about the world which were at best different and at worst contradictory. I imagine this problem occurs less in the hard sciences than the social sciences, where we’re beset by the over-formalization of economics, the valiant attempts at laboratory testing in psychology, “wishy-washy sociology”, etc and so on.

So the problem became: how do I judge what information to accept at the moment? Certainly, you can ask experts – people who know everything about a field – or you can become an expert yourself (in 10 years or so). But what happens if you ask multiple experts, each of which gives you a different answer? Whose information do you accept? Is it whoever has the best suit?

It turns out there’s a skill-set involved in judging what information is best for you at the moment, given some pre-existing criteria. Among other things, you focus on methodology over findings; under the assumption that if you know the limits of the methods, you know the limits of the conclusions. “Knowing that” is much less important than “knowing how”, in the end.

Knowledge isn’t everything of course, and being able to pick out which facts are salient – and which are really facts, as opposed to guesses masquerading as facts – is never sufficient. But it is necessary for so many things – good decisions being the most obvious.

Fun with Graphs

Here’s a simple graph in Microsoft Excel illustrating (i) the growing unemployment in New York City, and (ii) how it contrasts with New York State overall. The tentative conclusion is that the employment situation in New York City isn’t getting better, and that it’s actually harder to get a job in the city than the rest of the state. This makes a certain degree of sense, if you assume that the financial industry cutting back on expenditures (payroll, capital, etc) means fired white-collar workers and fired blue-collar workers who were working on projects financed with money that’s no longer around. To compare, note that the unemployment rate a year ago was 5.9% in the city, so we’re now 4.4% above that.

The green line is a simple linear regression line, courtesy of Excel. It’s not, of course, authoritative – but hey, that is a pretty high r squared value!

Needless to say, we would expect unemployment to top out at some point as businesses reach the end of what they can cut, and wages are driven down. Still, a U3 unemployment rate this high isn’t a happy situation. To compare, the nationwide U6 rate is 16.8% – probably a bit higher in New York City these days.

Note: this is in no way a complete or even useful picture of the unemployment situation. It’s just a cute graph. We’d need to delve into quite a bit more to get an idea of the true unemployment situation.

Get The Facts

Gizmodo has posted something particularly brainless. They conclude that “we know it’s not an incredibly difficult process” to port a game from the iPhone to the Zune HD, because a developer managed it in 12 hours using the XNA Studio.

Yes, well, that would be more of a story if the YouTube video embedded in their post didn’t say “Game developed with MonoTouch.” MonoTouch is a framework to allow .NET application development on the iPhone, using the Mono .NET Framework which is a re-implementation of the Microsoft .NET framework.

In other words, a developer coding in Mono is capable to – shockingly – rebuild the application in another .NET environment in a very short amount of time. That’s testament to Novell’s work implementing the .NET framework – but it really shouldn’t surprising, since it’s the entire point. A .NET application built on one platform is easily portable to another – since the .NET framework is itself platform-agnostic.

In other words: No, porting games from the iPhone to the newly-released Zune HD is not that easy. As always, difficulty porting is a function of how many platform-specific libraries you use. If you develop right against the iPhone API in Objective-C, it’s going to be bloody difficult to port over to the Zune HD.